What the hell was happening? Let's explain...

It was so nearly victory in the most improbable of circumstances, but what changed in the Principality Stadium on Saturday evening?

First of all, there’s only one place to start this newsletter.

The news that Barry John, the iconic former Wales fly-half, has died at the age of 79 is a dreadfully sad piece of news to end the opening round of the Six Nations on.

On a personal note, one of the earliest thrills in this job was sitting next to Barry in the Principality Stadium’s press box as a journalist straight out of university. Although I never saw him play, I can’t recall a time before I knew who he was, or what he did.

To watch him watch Wales was surreal.

He was, quite simply, the King.

How Wales almost completed the comeback of all comebacks

Few actors can portray split personality like Willem Dafoe.

The four-time Oscar nominee has never played Jeckyl and Hyde, but Spiderman villain Green Goblin and his alter-ego Norman Osborn was close enough to marrying the sublime and the ridiculous.

In that sense, he’d have likely loved being in the Principality Stadium on Saturday, to watch Wales and Scotland take turns in being either brilliant or awful.

Because that’s the big takeaway from this Six Nations clash above all else. In the first-half, Scotland were superb and Wales were disastrous and then vice versa in the second-half.

That first-half, as Warren Gatland said, was “probably one of the worst 40-minute performances in my whole rugby career as a coach”. From the press box, it was certainly hard to recall a Wales performance as dismal as that - with journalists turning to one another to check exactly when Wales were kept off the scoreboard last.

And then, conversely, the second-half was remarkable. People might like to think of journalists as grizzled, cynical, world-weary and all boasting the same byline picture (shoulders turned slightly to the left, vacant look in the eyes and an awkward smile that tries to straddle smug and embarrassed) but all of us - bar the travelling, tortured Scottish journalists - were laughing like children on Christmas morning at the absurdity of it all.

In the end, Wales’ comeback fell short, but, ahead of a trip to Twickenham, there’s plenty to unpack ahead of next week’s meeting with Steve Borthwick’s England.

This is a forensic look at what was actually happening on the pitch.

‘Probably one of the worst 40-minute performances’

Let’s start with that first-half. I know, I know - I’d rather not too. But we have to, I promise.

Speaking to one member of Wales’ management staff around the Vale of Glamorgan team base last Thursday, there was a sense that Wales wanted to be expansive on Saturday.

That they didn’t begs the question; why? Warren Gatland’s post-match comments suggest the players went into ‘safety mode’, but do they stack up?

After all, Wales set the tone for this display in under a minute. Just 57 seconds in, Wales have gone through four phases in the English half.

The speed of ball isn’t awful by any means, but Wales opt to hoist up a box-kick. Given how close they are to the Scottish 22, the kick needs to be pinpoint and contestable for it not to be rendered pointless.

It wasn’t, though. Gareth Davies’ execution is poor and it’s an easy mark for Kyle Rowe.

The question is, so early into the game, is that players retreating to ‘safety mode’ or the words of the coaches still ringing in their ears?

It’s an interesting one to ponder. Ever since Dan Biggar and Rhys Patchell both popped over snap drop-goals early in both halves of the 2019 World Cup victory over Australia, I’ve always assumed that it was a pre-call from the coaches - intent on setting the tone from the off in Japan.

However, speaking to Patchell in the depths of Lyon’s Parc Olympique Lyonnais ahead of Wales’ latest World Cup match-up with the Wallabies, I learned that wasn’t the case. There was no message from Gatland, or Neil Jenkins, or Stephen Jones, telling Biggar to have a crack at the World Cup’s fastest-ever drop goal.

Sure, Shaun Edwards might have suggested it, but I’m reliably informed one of the last coaching messages from him before every Welsh game was to try one. But then, he loves them as a way of scoring points - it’s the rugby league in him, you know.

It’s not black and white, after all - as if the coaches said ‘run’, but the players decided to only kick. There will be have been elements of pragmatism in the coaches’ messages regardless of their overall intentions of being more expansive.

But whether it was the coaches’ tactics or not, it’s clear that Wales erred on the side of caution more than they should have.

Around halfway, Wales ran identical starter plays from lineouts on two occasions, going off the top and feeding Sam Costelow. The fly-half ships it on to Nick Tompkins, who then feeds James Botham.

Owen Watkin is out the back both times, should Wales wish to challenge the Scottish edge, but it’s a pre-called move. Costelow bails out both times, drops deep into the pocket and kicks.

Wales’ kick-heavy approach only served to put them on the back-foot territorially and precipitated a host of disappointing errors.

Take Davies’ first minute box-kick, for example. Rowe takes the mark easily, boots the ball downfield and Davies has to get back to kick to touch. It’s a simple gain of around 50 metres for Scotland.

To compound matters, Scotland take the lineout quick and move infield, with Finn Russell then darting from one side of the midfield ruck to the other to nearly create a linebreak.

A similar switch of direction would create Scotland’s first try, isolating Owen Watkin after Tommy Reffell was pulled to the ruck after Wales had overfolded.

But what makes that initial quick lineout worse is that it’s exactly what you should be expecting from this Scotland team. Two years ago, they created their first try against England in a similar fashion - but Wales were ready the week after.

There were more disappointing errors to come from Wales initially losing the kick battle. Five lineouts were lost, while there were three sloppy offside penalties - with the depth of Wales’ kick set-up not helping on that front.

When Wales did try to play beyond the kicks and lost lineouts, it wasn’t too clear what they wanted to do.

Their shape was just off, with their spacing on pods being a little distanced - leaving backs to run at double tacklers…

Or they were just shipping on static ball behind the gain line…

Pleasingly, most of these things are easy fixes. We saw exactly that in the second-half.

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A remarkable turnaround

It’s not as if Wales came out in the second-half and all was right. The kick-chase for Duhan van der Merwe’s score was all over the shop, with Ioan Lloyd folding behind Nick Tompkins in anticipation of Scotland going wide - allowing Russell to target Reffell directly.

But, gradually, with Tomos Williams and Lloyd on the field, things did get better. Well, gradually to begin with and then, as the bizarreness of it all unfolded, quite rapidly.

Afterwards, Gatland said that his message at half-time was to “go out and play some rugby, get some pace into our game”. It’s a little simplistic, and some will criticise him for perhaps absolving himself of the blame for the first-half.

In reality, it probably comes down to reiteration of the message from before the game. Making this young team believe they have the freedom to carry out the gameplan is just as important, if not more, as what the gameplan actually is.

With that message likely reinforced at half-time and the scoreboard effectively giving them nothing to lose, Wales injected more pace into the game after the break, to the point of almost overplaying.

Almost immediately, Wales’ carrying improved, with their spacing and accuracy much better.

The spacing here between Tompkins, Botham and Lloyd is tighter, with the latter adding depth as the option out the back.

That allows Lloyd to take the pull-back pass in motion as Owen Watkin runs a hard line outside him. Lloyd being in motion forces one defender to bite, turning Watkin’s destination from a double tackle into a weak shoulder to charge through.

With momentum, Wales hit another of their dangerous carriers, Rio Dyer, and the under-pressure Scotland infringe.

There was variation in what Wales were doing. Tomos Williams was scanning the field, taking an extra step from the base of the ruck to suck in defenders before firing out passes that took out several Scottish bodies at a time.

There were quick taps, inside balls and just a lot of willingness to find that extra pass. Nine times out of 10, these two carries are into contact, rather than shipped on, by Elliot Dee. And what about the footwork from Alex Mann on his debut.

For as good as some of the Welsh forwards were, and you could have separate newsletters on Reffell and Aaron Wainwright, perhaps no one typified the change from first-half to second better than Corey Domachowski.

Not only did he buy into the willingness to move the ball during the latter part of his 80-minute shift, but his ability to deftly pull it back meant that, when he did carry, he did so on his terms, not the defences.

Fittingly, what created Wales’ final try was Wales setting up to box-kick, only for Williams to scan and notice a hooker and second-row defending the Scottish edge. The complete antithesis of the kick-heavy first-half.

They feed it out to Cameron Winnett, who steps around hooker George Turner before releasing Dyer down the wing. Such is the efforts to keep the ball alive, the actual ruck following Dyer’s break down the left wing is in the middle of the pitch.

It’s the perfect representation of what Wales did in that second-half. Of course, it wouldn’t be enough.

How they find the balance of that manic second-half spell is the key takeaway from this opening defeat. Not every game will be as madcap as this - you can’t be Jekyll and Hyde every week.

However, for their own development, it’s perhaps best that it’s England next up for Wales. Borthwick’s side are also in a rebuilding phase - with former Springbok coach Felix Jones trying to bring in an aggressive outside blitz led by their wings.

That’s still in its infancy, with some teething problems against Italy. If Wales are timid and narrow, they could struggle. But if they’re brave, England’s fledgling system could show cracks.

Intriguingly, one of the English players who looks ideal for their new defensive system? A certain Immanuel Feyi-Waboso.

Now, that whets the appetite, doesn’t it?

Thank you for subscribing to the newsletter and I hope you enjoyed this first offering. There’ll be plenty more Welsh rugby analysis and inside information to come over the days and weeks ahead. If you know someone you think would like what we’re doing, please spread the word. Cheers

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